It is expected that the median number of new non farm employment in April 2025 will be 135000.

If 135000 is the actual increase in non farm employment, it will mark a decrease compared to last month and will also be lower than the average level of 156800 in the past 12 months.

In March 2025, the total number of non-agricultural employment increased by 228000, higher than the estimated median of 130000. In the past 12 months, the total number of non farm employment exceeded the median estimate in 5 months and fell below the median estimate in 7 months. In the past 5 years (60 months), the total number of non farm employees exceeded the median estimate 57% of the time and fell below the median estimate 43% of the time. The historical actual figures of this analysis reflect the revised figures, rather than the original figures published on the day of the report.

The median estimate of 135000 is based on 13 estimates collected by FactSet. These estimates range from a minimum of 110000 to a maximum of 170000, with a difference of 60000, which is less than the average difference of 80500 between the low and high points of the past 12 months.

The median unemployment rate is expected to be 4.2% in April 2025.

If the actual unemployment rate is 4.2%, it will be the same as last month and slightly higher than the average level of 4.1% in the past 12 months.

The unemployment rate in March 2025 is 4.2%, while the estimated median is 4.2%. In the past 12 months, the unemployment rate has exceeded the median estimate in 6 months, remained at the same level as the median estimate in 3 months, and fallen below the median estimate in 3 months. In the past 5 years (60 months), the unemployment rate exceeded the median estimate 32% of the time, matched the median estimate 15% of the time, and fell below the median estimate 53% of the time.

The median estimate of 4.2% is based on 16 estimates collected by FactSet. These estimates range from 4.1% to 4.3%, with a difference of 20 basis points, slightly higher than the average difference of 18 basis points between the low and high points of the past 12 months.