Yesterday, Brent crude oil closed down 0.26% at $64.08 per barrel; US crude oil fell 0.2% to $60.3. This is the lowest closing price of the two major oil price benchmarks since April 10th. During the Wednesday session, the latest data shows that Brent crude oil prices continued to decline slightly to $63.16.

According to market research, Trump's continued unpredictable taxation strategy on imported goods has raised market expectations that the global economy may fall into recession this year. Asian countries have been affected by uncertain tariffs and have taken countermeasures against US goods, exacerbating trade concerns between the world's top two crude oil consuming countries.

ANZ Bank's senior commodity strategist Daniel Hynes said, "Trade uncertainty has suppressed investor sentiment due to concerns about demand. We are also concerned that the recent strong performance of US economic data is only due to companies hoarding goods in advance, and this effect seems to be fading at present

Data shows that the US consumer confidence index fell to a nearly five-year low in April, and market sentiment was severely affected by the uncertain trade outlook. The decline in confidence index also reflects a weakening of market confidence in future energy demand.

According to data released by the American Petroleum Institute (API), US crude oil inventories increased by 3.8 million barrels last week, far exceeding analysts' expected growth of 400000 barrels. This news has intensified concerns about the supply-demand imbalance in the oil market.

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) will release official inventory data on Wednesday evening, and the market will closely monitor whether there is another significant accumulation of inventory.

At the same time, the supply side may also face new shocks. According to market research, multiple OPEC+member countries plan to reintroduce their production increase proposals at the June meeting. This means that in the context of global economic prospects being dragged down by trade uncertainty, the oil market will face greater pressure from supply-demand imbalances.

From the daily chart, US crude oil (WTI) is currently in a downward trend, with prices closing at support levels around $60 for several consecutive days. In terms of technical indicators, the MACD fast slow line's dead cross continues to expand, indicating that the downward momentum is still strengthening; The RSI index fell below 40, indicating that market sentiment is bearish and has not yet entered the oversold zone, with further room for further decline.

If the price falls below the integer level of $60, the next support level will look towards around $58.2; On the contrary, if it can rebound and effectively stabilize above $61.5, it is expected to usher in a corrective rebound in the short term.

Editor's viewpoint:

The recent decline in crude oil prices reflects the market's dual concerns about the macroeconomic outlook and energy demand. The uncertainty of Trump's tariff policies not only disrupts global supply chains, but also affects investors' confidence in long-term energy demand.

Against the backdrop of increasing crude oil inventories and potential OPEC+production increases, oil prices may face sustained downward pressure in the short term, unless there are clear signals of trade easing or signs of demand recovery.